A man buys a hat to raise funds at a rally for Wexit Alberta, a separatist group seeking federal political party status, in Calgary on Nov. 16, 2019.TODD KOROL/Reuters
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in March issued something between a threat and a prediction: The winner of the federal election will have six months to roll out policies friendly to the energy industry or face an “unprecedented national unity crisis.”
Ms. Smith had previously made headlines with her visit to Florida in January to meet U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and her refusal to sign the statement from then prime minister Justin Trudeau and the other premiers about how to deal with the burgeoning trade war with Canada’s southern neighbour. Critics floated the word “traitor” as they opposed her adventures in foreign policy, even though the Premier insisted she was firmly on Team Canada.
But this past week marked a change.
Ms. Smith pledged to assemble a group – she dubbed it the “What’s Next” panel – to take the political temperature in Alberta after the federal election, collecting feedback on possible referendum questions. It was an overture to Albertans who are frustrated with the early trajectory of the federal campaign, in which the Liberals appear competitive under Mark Carney, thanks in part to Mr. Trump’s global trade war and threat of annexation.
Then, on Wednesday, Preston Manning, the founder of the Reform Party, in The Globe and Mail warned that Confederation could crumble should the Liberals form government under Mr. Carney, who won his party’s leadership race after months of cross-country anger pushed Mr. Trudeau to step down.
Mr. Manning argued the Liberals have failed to address “issues of greatest concern to Western Canadians” and if they win again, it will lead to a new unity crisis.
“Voters, particularly in central and Atlantic Canada, need to recognize that a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession – a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it,” he wrote.
While Mr. Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre were both quick to dismiss Mr. Manning’s suggestion, talk of separatism in Alberta has not abated.
The prospect of another Liberal government, combined with the possibility that Ottawa would use the province’s energy exports as a cudgel against the U.S. in the trade dispute, is fueling Alberta’s separatist angst. And Ms. Smith’s hobnobbing with Republican governors, members of Congress, and U.S. podcasters and personalities on the right end of the political spectrum, in an effort to shield Alberta’s exports from tariffs by influencing people who influence Mr. Trump, has made her either a diplomatic savant or traitorous sellout, depending on your perspective.
Mr. Manning supports Ms. Smith’s charm offensive south of the border.
“The way you get to a populist leader is through his followers,” he said in an interview. Western Canada’s third-party tradition, he said, is defined by populist movements, from Riel to Reform. “If anybody understands how you deal with a populist leader, it ought to be Western Canadians. And Danielle, I think, is well aware of those lessons.”
Alberta’s separatist undercurrent has swirled for years and Mr. Trump’s talk of annexing Canada or parts of it is empowering voters who have an inclination for independence, according to Janet Brown, the go-to pollster in the province.
Surveys regularly show one in five Albertans say they would be open to the idea of separatism, she said. But while Ms. Smith is playing footsie with conservatives who favour breaking away from Canada, Ms. Brown does not think the fringe idea is gaining support.
“The movement is getting louder. I’m not necessarily sure it is getting bigger,” she said.
Ms. Smith is playing up concerns over national unity – a step or two below separatism – because she fears the next federal government will owe its electoral victory to Eastern Canada and Western issues will continue to be ignored, Ms. Brown said.
“She’s just not going to wait for election day,” Ms. Brown said. “She’s putting the next prime minister on notice that she’s not going to back down.”
Ms. Smith this week said she would not champion Alberta leaving Canada, but noted her province has a process for citizens to initiate a referendum.
The Premier’s comments and diplomatic efforts are unlikely to unnerve Albertans to the point where they abandon the federal Conservatives. Albertans, Ms. Brown said, are accustomed to Ms. Smith’s tone and approach. But Ms. Smith, who leads the United Conservative Party, is doing little to boost Mr. Poilievre’s prospects.
“What has the federal Conservatives worried is that the things she’s saying and doing will have an effect on other parts of Canada,” Ms. Brown said. “She’s not helping Pierre in Quebec and Ontario.”
The Premier is cheering for Mr. Poilievre to win the election, but her priority is signalling how Alberta will react if the next federal government is not favourable to the province’s interests.
“That message is more important to her than trying to convince people to vote for Poilievre,” Ms. Brown said. “Although she supports Poilievre, she’s certainly not campaigning for Poilievre.”
While Ms. Smith and Mr. Manning are the most prominent voices reviving the Western alienation debate, B.C. Premier David Eby is also raising concerns, albeit more delicately.
Mr. Eby on Thursday said he hoped Mr. Carney, who is expected to campaign in Western Canada soon, will understand “the unique impacts” of Mr. Trump’s actions on British Columbia.
“The risk always with prime ministers and federal parties is to get trapped in Ontario. They’re in Ontario all the time, in Ottawa, beside Quebec . . . and they forget about the West.”
Mr. Eby said he was “deeply disappointed” to read Mr. Manning arguing that an election victory for Mr. Carney would fuel Western separatism and prompt a national unity crisis.
“To have an op-ed at this moment that says that the path forward is to break up the country – which is what he said – is completely bizarre.”
Mr. Carney on Friday dismissed Mr. Manning’s secessionist leanings as dramatic and unhelpful, while defending his Western roots. Mr. Poilievre on Thursday also rejected Mr. Manning’s position.
“We need to unite the country,” Mr. Poilievre said.