The only way to cut the prison the population in Scotland is to send fewer people to prison. 

Our current approach, rightly based on punishment, rehabilitation, deterrence and public safety, isn’t working, is expensive in human and financial terms and isn’t delivering that key objective. 

Instead of this approach the prison service is dealing with early release, overcrowded prisons and unfair burdens on prison officers. This is the modern version of “Scotland’s Choice”.

High and embarrassing levels of incarceration confirm that Scotland leads western Europe, per head of population, in the number of “people behind bars”. 

Despite reductions in prison populations in Europe, especially in the Nordic countries, the prison population of more than 8300 in Scotland today is actually higher than it was in July 2008, when I delivered the report of my Commission “Scotland’s Choice” on the future of prisons in Scotland to Kenny MacAskill the then Cabinet Secretary for Justice.

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My conclusion said: "The Commission recommends that the government pursue a target of reducing the prison population to an average daily population of 5000 guiding the efforts of relevant statutory bodies in achieving it”. 

Alex Salmond, attending the launch and sharp as ever, asked why I had included this comment in the report. Responding, I said, “because it was possible, and the right thing to do”. I remain of that opinion, but recognise now that new and radical thinking is required.

Crime and prison policy remains one of the most complex, sensitive, and volatile issues that any government has to deal with. The issue impacts people in a very direct way, evokes fear in communities, stirs the rawest of emotions where the idea of justice can be submerged in anger and frustration. 

Our daily prison population is a tiny part of the total number of people in Scotland, but it does generate intense controversy and suggests the need to take a new approach to public safety, punishment and rehabilitation.

Alex Salmond's first government commissioned a report on Scotland's prisons from Henry McLeish in 2007 with the report published the following year (Image: PA) Building a new vision of Scotland requires fewer people in prison and a process that seeks consensus by diminishing the tribal and wasteful party political conflicts around this issue as well as involving a much wider range of interests and institutions in the process, especially the courts and the media.

There is also an urgent need to involve the public, essential if we want our democracy to work more effectively in tackling issues of massive public concern. 

But baked into our politics is understandably the difficulty of any political party going out on a limb on crime and punishment laying them open to accusations of going soft on crime. The backlash, especially from the media, could be overwhelming. As a consequence there is no honest debate. The current so called tough approach to crime is hollow, failing, and wasteful of people and resources. Scotland is capable of doing better. 

So why do we need a radical change in the style and substance of our approach? Why is Scotland such an outlier?

A glance at figures from the House of Commons Library, Glasgow University and the World Prison Brief, confirm that in 2022/23 Scotland, with an incarceration rate of 144 per 100,000 population, was the highest in Western Europe compared with Northern Ireland 98, Norway 53, Sweden 82, Denmark 69 with only England and Wales 146 being worse. The Scottish public health observatory said the rate of incarceration in August 2024 was 147 per 100,000, totally out of step with most European countries

But the rate in Finland, which is the same size as Scotland, is just 51. This is shocking especially when the Nordic model is frequently held up by the Scottish Government as one of the nation we should identify with.

Obviously every country is the product of its history, culture, industry, politics, health, institutions, drugs, homelessness, alcohol, social exclusion, family instability and poverty, but no amount of different identity analysis can explain away the fact that Scotland has a major problem. 

On the financial front this level of incarceration is expensive, approximately £45,000 per inmate.

In my report, published nearly 20 years ago, we recommended action on short sentences, remand prisoners and reoffending. 

Unfortunately, progress since then has been slow and intermittent. A new approach is long overdue, with government and politics needing to reinvent how major policy issues are dealt with.

With certain exceptions, short sentences don’t work. The example we used then, and which may still be available in an analysis of today’s figures was that, “in 2006, 7000 offenders who received a short custodial sentence had already accumulated between them 47,500 prior spells in prison” and nearly 1 in 6 of these offenders had already been to prison on more than ten previous occasion. 

What purpose if any does this serve? Some progress has been made but nearly 1000 prisoners on any one day are on sentences less than a year. Why? One reason put forward by the judiciary is that a “presumption” against short sentences is not a “prohibition”. This issue must be revisited.

Next the question of prisoners on remand, and why so many of them are incarcerated waiting for trial, innocent until proven guilty. There are calls for the use of remand to be reduced. An historic high in July 2024 confirmed a figure of 28% with 23% awaiting trial. Of course this involves some serious crime and dangerous people. 

Levels of crime and reoffending are important issues. Reconviction rates of 26.9% in 2020/21 confirm the problem identified in our report. Acknowledging that crimes of violence, serious sexual assault and longer sentences play their part in pushing up the prison population, the crime figures throw up a welcome but puzzling move in the other direction to the prison population. 

Estimates suggest that there has been a 53% reduction in crime in Scotland between 2008 and 2021/22 at the same time as the prison population has remained the same. A crime rate of 52.8  per 1000 population, lower than 93.6 per 1000 in England and Wales.

On the positive side, there have been innovations in community alternatives which are in many cases more cost effective and, more importantly, successful in keeping communities safe and building better futures.

Women represent only 4% of the overall prison population and there is increasing evidence that women are less likely to reoffend following a community sentence rather than a custodial one. Short sentences don’t work and often fail to take account that women’s involvement in the criminal justice system is often linked to mental health needs, drug, and alcohol problems, coercive relationships, financial difficulties and debt. With many of them being connected. 

In framing a different approach to a persistent and deepening problem we need a paradigm shift in our thinking and approach. But it does require a new way of making and delivering policy. We have the skills and experience in the prison service, where some excellent work is being done, but politicians of every stripe must reach across the aisle and build consensus to find new answers to old problems. 

But it needs courage and vision which could eventually boost our national pride, inject a new enlightenment into this complex area and in the future, if successful, this new approach could be extended to other policy areas. 

It is a tough ask, but policy makers must break free from outdated silos and engage in the public interest.

The judiciary, in particular the courts, and the media play vital roles, but criminal justice professionals, local communities families and individuals, local government, the police and the third sector have a role to play. Ideas such as citizens assemblies can break down divisions, create dialogue and help align Scotland with Nordic exemplars and not England.

Putting Scotland first is not a party political statement, but a call to win success in keeping people out of prison.