A demonstrator holds a sign reading 'Stop Trump' at an 'Elbows Up' rally outside the U.S. Consulate General in Vancouver on March 24.Isabella Falsetti/The Globe and Mail
Canada must not rush into trade negotiations with the United States and must dramatically reduce its vulnerability to a neighbour that can no longer be trusted, a group of Canadian leaders in foreign affairs and business says.
“The United States, under President Donald Trump, has become an unreliable partner. Its long-standing allies can no longer be confident that America will respect its commitments to come to their defence or respect its economic agreements. That is particularly true for Canada,” a new report by Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations says.
The report identifies concrete measures to mitigate Canada’s risk of depending on an ally, trading partner, and neighbour “who has become unreliable to the point of hostility.”
The decades of free trade and co-operation between the two countries were “shattered on January 20, 2025, when annexing Canada became the official policy of the new administration. While Canadians’ relationship with the American people remains strong and is based on mutual respect, the American President has chosen to attack our country,” the group said in its latest report called Broken Trust: Managing an Unreliable Ally.
This group’s members include Perrin Beatty, a former defence minister and business leader; Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser; former Canadian ambassador Jonathan Fried; and former trade negotiator John Weekes.
It recommends the Canadian government create a “Situation Room,” or single operational focal point, similar to the Afghanistan Task Force, to co-ordinate a whole-of-government response to “successive crises that will become part of the ‘new normal’ in our relations with the United States and our global partners” under Mr. Trump.
Prime Minister Mark Carney recently announced he and Mr. Trump agreed that both countries would begin comprehensive negotiations on a new economic and security relationship after the April 28 federal election.
The group cautions against rushing into trade talks. “The mounting pressure from the public, business and Wall Street to dial back on tariffs and Trump’s other demands will strengthen our bargaining position,” they said. “Before we agree to new rules and tariffs, we must also know whether Trump’s policy approaches will change dramatically after the midterm Congressional elections or earlier as a result of a backlash from Republicans who did not vote to attack America’s partners.”
It cautioned Canadians may need to learn to live with tariffs.
“The Trump administration views tariffs as key to rebuilding America’s manufacturing sector while creating incentives for U.S. companies that have moved overseas operations to return and for foreign firms to shift production to the U.S.,” it said. “Our goal should be to secure as low tariffs as possible, but the reality is that we and other U.S. trading partners will be subject to tariff,” they said.
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The report pointed out that before the 1988 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, Canada’s overall tariff rates were around seven per cent, while the U.S.’s average tariffs were five per cent.
“Returning to a pre-FTA world will undoubtedly affect our prosperity, but it is a world we have lived in and survived before.”
The group also warned that the United States “will insist we put everything on the negotiating table, including sectors that have traditionally been no-go zones for Canada. We must be ready for it.” The targets “will include supply management in agriculture and restrictions in Canada’s policies on culture, transportation, telecommunications, banking, financial services, digital commerce, intellectual property, taxation policy and natural resources like critical minerals.”
They said Canada’s goal must be to secure lower – and, where possible, no – tariffs on commodities, critical minerals and capital and intermediate goods. “We should stress that these products are crucial to rebuilding America’s manufacturing capacity while enhancing the security of supply in an increasingly dangerous world.”
Canada needs to find new markets and enable the projects and infrastructure to make them possible, they said, citing commodities in particular as competitive advantage, including energy, potash, uranium, critical minerals, seafood, canola, wheat and other agricultural products.
Ottawa must also reduce its reliance on American military equipment. “Trump’s recent statement that he may not sell or might restrict critical defence equipment to U.S. allies because, in his view, ‘some day maybe they’re not our allies’ is a stark warning about our vulnerability in defence procurement.”
The group said this crisis could also result in Canada’s role in the world growing.
“In recent years, we have risked becoming an asterisk on the international scene, but we retain significant assets, including our resources, our geography and our history as a country with the ideas and willingness needed to resolve complex international issues.”
The expert group is co-sponsored by the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, and the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. Mr. Beatty and Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University, are co-chairs.
Signatories of the report are Mr. Fried; Mr. Weekes; Mr. Rigby; Tom d’Aquino, founding CEO of the Business Council of Canada; former Alberta cabinet minister Gary Mar; international trade lawyer Lawrence Herman; Carlo Dade, director of international policy at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy; director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy Martha Hall Findlay; retired Vice-Admiral Mark Norman; and former diplomat Colin Robertson.